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These Canadian housing markets took a beating in 2018. What does 2019 have in store?

12/5/2018

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Photo: James Bomblaes
2018 began with a steep nationwide drop in housing activity. Stricter mortgage qualification rules pushed buyers to the sidelines, as year-over-year double-digit sales decreases became the norm.
Of course, some markets had a rougher year than others. Toronto, with its strong early-2017 performance, had a particularly cool start to the year, as did Hamilton. In the west, the Calgary market is continues to deal with the effects of low oil prices which sunk the housing market in 2015, while Vancouver is still adjusting to a stricter foreign buyers tax that was increased in February.
What does 2019 have in store for these troubled markets? Livabl has combed through the latest forecasts from industry experts, to give you an idea of what to expect.
Toronto should remain stable
With its record performance in 2017, the Toronto housing market became the epitome of the old adage “the bigger they are, the harder they fall” in 2018.
While activity took its steepest dive in the spring of 2017, with the introduction of the Ontario government’s Fair Housing Plan, sales dropped dramatically in January, as the market struggled to adjust to the new mortgage stress test.
Over the summer months, the city began to see a slow month-over-month rise in sales and prices. That’s led several experts — including Phil Soper, president and CEO of Royal LePage — to predict a relatively cool, but stable, 2019. Sales were up 6 percent year-over-year in October, while listings fell a slight 2.7 percent.
“The numbers [you saw] in the GTA [in October] are the direct result of strong demand amid relatively limited supply,” Soper tells Livabl.
It’s a sentiment echoed by TD economist Rishi Sondhi, who wrote in his latest forecast that the Toronto housing market would remain balanced in the new year, as strong demand pushed up against deteriorating housing affordability.
“Toronto’s market has been balanced for over a year now, manifesting in slower price appreciation,” he writes. “Strained affordability conditions, exacerbated by rising borrowing costs, will continue to restrain demand.”
Hamilton will cool slightly
The Hamilton market, which has long been a refuge for those priced-out of Toronto, largely mimicked the larger city’s sales trajectory in 2018.
Home sales are predicted to fall 15.9 percent year-over-year by the end of 2018, according to the latest data from Central 1 Credit Union.
Many industry experts are predicting that the cooler period will last well into 2019, while noting that the city’s strong fundamentals will keep things from changing too drastically.
“What you have in Hamilton is a relatively affordable market, that allows those who cannot afford to live in Toronto a chance to own a home, while still commuting to work,” Hamilton-based realtor Mike Heddle tells Livabl. “That’s a trend that’s not going to change any time soon.”
Earlier this year, BMO economist Robert Kavcic named Hamilton one of Canada’s most attractive labour markets, arguing that the city’s strong job market will likely draw prospective homeowners in the new year.
“Given that Toronto has been held back by significant pressure on housing affordability, cities like Hamilton…within commuting distance of Toronto jobs, have served as a release valve,” he wrote.
Calgary oversupply issue to persist
At first glance, there’s something that appears to bode well for Calgary’s ownership housing market: the rental market is tightening. Normally, this has a knock-on effect for home sales. As a vacancy rate trends lower, rents get more expensive due to competition for apartments, and some decide it’s worth it to purchase a home.
This time is different, suggests one expert. Lower oil prices have persistently taken a toll on home sales and prices in Calgary, and even though the rental market looks to be picking up, Keith Reading, director of research for Morguard, recently said it would be 18 months before demand is sufficient to drive rents up.
From there, it would still be a number of years before any meaningful improvements are seen on the resale and new-home markets.
While the Calgary Real Estate Board has yet to publish its final lookahead at 2019, its chief economist Ann-Marie Lurie recently gave Livabl an idea of what to expect.
“The current situation that we’re in is we have an oversupplied market, prices have been trending down, and we just haven’t seen the pickup in the economy — at least in Calgary — as what was expected, so that’s really what we’re seeing leading into next year,” Lurie said in an interview earlier this month.
Vancouver will continue to correct
When it comes to Vancouver’s housing market, the peaks and troughs of various forecasts from analysts vary as wildly as the mountainous landscape surrounding the city.
For instance, credit union Central 1 predicts the median price of a Metro Vancouver home will drop by about 3 percent next year before remaining flat in 2020. “A modest housing price correction is underway in the region triggered by rising interest rates and federal mortgage criteria which is intensified by provincial policy measures,” writes Bryan Yu, Central 1’s Deputy Chief Economist, noting a recent hike to the regional foreign-homebuyer tax and proposed speculation taxes.
Compare that to Capital Economics’ latest analysis: based on rising levels of inventory, activity drying up, and tougher federal mortgage rules introduced back in January, home resale prices could fall 5 percent next year, in the research firm’s estimation.
Perhaps the most dramatic prediction comes by way of Eitel Insights, which used stock market-style analysis to forecast the future of detached home prices in Vancouver. While the benchmark price of a detached home was $1,524,000 last month, Eitel Insights anticipates that number will fall to $1.4 million between next year and 2021 at the latest.
Like Capital Economics and Central 1, Dane Eitel, the owner of Eitel Insights, bases his bearish take on the impact of the federal government’s move at the beginning of the year to extend stress testing to uninsured mortgages. Previously, a borrower could put down 20 percent for a loan from a big Canadian bank and sidestep the test.
While the relative affordability of multi-family dwellings in Vancouver has provided somewhat of a buffer for the pre-construction condo market despite new mortgage qualifying regulations, rising supply levels are expected to put downward pressure on prices in this segment, too. Already, new-home prices are down between 5 and 15 percent, depending on location and housing type, according to Urban Analytics.  Sarah Niedoba and Josh Sherman Dec 4, 2018
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Pot is now legal in Ontario. Here's what you need to know

11/26/2018

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​Everything you need to know about legalized pot and what’s to come in OntarioIt's legalization day for recreational use of cannabis. If you are 19 years of age or older, you can now buy, consume and grow recreational marijuana in Ontario. You can also share up to 30 grams of pot among adults over 19.
While buying edibles remains illegal for another year, you can make marijuana food and drinks at home.
But you are only limited to carrying up to 30 grams of dried cannabis in public.
Residents are also limited to growing a maximum of four plants per household at any given time. Smoking pot now permitted in public places

Late Wednesday afternoon, Ontario passed its cannabis legislation, firmly establishing the right to smoke marijuana in public in the province.
The bill was put to a final vote hours after recreational use of the drug became legal across Canada.
The legislation loosens regulations established by the previous Liberal government, allowing Ontario residents to smoke recreational cannabis wherever tobacco smoking is permitted.
Lt.-Gov. Elizabeth Dowdeswell will be asked to proclaim it into law immediately, officials said.


Under the new law, you can smoke and vape cannabis at the following places:
  • Private residences.
  • Many outdoor public places.
  • Designated guest rooms in hotels, motels and inns.
  • Residential vehicles and boats.
  • Scientific research and testing facilities.
  • Controlled areas in long-term care homes, certain retirement homes, residential hospices, provincially-funded supportive housing, designated psychiatric facilities or veterans facilities.
Under the new law, you are not allowed to smoke cannabis in the following places:
  • Indoor common areas in condos, apartment buildings and university/college residences.
  • Enclosed public places and enclosed work places.
  • Non-designated guest rooms in hotels, motels and inns.
  • Schools and places where children gather.
  • On school grounds.
  • All public areas within 20 metres of these grounds.
  • On children's playgrounds and public areas within 20 metres of playgrounds.
  • in child care centres, or where an early years program is provided
  • In places where home child care is provided — even if children aren't present
  • Hospitals, hospices, care homes and other facilities.
Also, you will not be able to smoke or vape cannabis:
  • Within nine metres from the entrance or exit of hospitals (public/private), psychiatric facilities, long-term care homes, independent health facilities.
  • On outdoor grounds of hospitals (public/private) and psychiatric facilities.
  • In non-controlled areas in long-term care homes, certain retirement homes, provincially-funded supportive housing, designated psychiatric or veterans' facilities, and residential hospices.
  • Publicly owned spaces, including sports fields, nearby spectator areas and public areas within 20 metres of these areas.
  • Vehicles and boats being driven or at risk of being put into motion.
And you are not allowed to smoke or vape cannabis in other outdoor areas, including:
  • Restaurants and on bar patios and public areas within 9m of a patio.
  • On outdoor grounds of specified Ontario government office buildings.
  • In reserved seating areas at outdoor sports and entertainment locations.
  • Grounds of community recreational facilities, and public areas within 20 metres of those grounds.
  • In sheltered outdoor areas with a roof and more than two walls which the public or employees frequent, or are invited to (e.g. a bus shelter).
  • Commercially manufactured edibles and concentrates remain illegal until sometime in 2019.
  • Only place to legally buy pot is OCS
The Ontario Cannabis Store (OCS) is the only place to legally purchase marijuana in Ontario and will be the case until at least April 2019.

In August, the provincial government announced it would scrap brick and mortar OCS locations and move toward a private retail system.​

The system, which the government describes as "tightly controlled" would be governed by the Alcohol and Gaming Commission Ontario, and OCS will be the only wholesaler to these stores.

The provincial government is giving municipalities until Jan. 22, 2019 to opt out of allowing private retailers within their boundaries.
Driving high will result in fines, zero tolerance for those under 21
The province has implemented zero tolerance for those under 21 caught driving under the influence of weed, regardless of licence status, and those with learners' permits (G1, G2, M1 or M2)
Legalization of recreational marijuana is expected to impact many aspects of life. Policies are either already re-written or are in the process of re-written. ​With files from the Canadian Press

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Starting today, self-employed Canadians have a better shot of qualifying for a mortgage

10/4/2018

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Sarah Niedoba Oct 1, 2018
It’s long been an accepted fact that self-employed Canadians have difficulty qualifying for mortgages. But that could be able to change, now that new lending rules are in place.
Starting today, new guidelines from Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. (CMHC) will make it easier for anyone who has been self-employed for less than two years to qualify for a mortgage. The new rules will ask lenders to consider additional factors in their decision-making process, such as predictable earnings, cash reserves and education.
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“Self-employed Canadians represent a significant part of the Canadian workforce,” writes CMHC chief commercial officer Romy Bowers, in a statement. “These policy changes respond to that reality by making it easier for self-employed borrowers to obtain CMHC mortgage loan insurance and benefit from competitive interest rates.”
Roughly 15 per cent of Canadians identify as self-employed, according to CMHC data, and the agency predicts that the number will increase as the “gig economy” continues to grow.
Approved lenders, including the country’s big banks, are under no strict obligation to observe the new guidelines, though it is likely that each will take their own approach to the new rules, according to CMHC spokesperson Audrey-Anne Coulombe.
“Implementation of CMHC guidelines may vary among lenders,” she tells Livabl. “These new guidelines are meant to be principle based and not to be too prescriptive to provide maximum flexibility for lenders.”
SEE ALSO: A jump in sales marks the start of the GTA fall housing market, according to expertsShe adds that the overall objective of the rules was to provide additional guidance to self-employed Canadians looking to qualify for a mortgage.
“These policy changes will make it easier for self-employed borrowers to obtain CMHC mortgage loan insurance and benefit from competitive interest rates,” she shares.
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Pitfalls of Gifting a Home to Your Child

9/18/2018

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By NatalkaFalcomer
While mixing family and money is a cardinal sin, it’s being done in Canada on a daily basis. The reason: the Canadian housing market is so hot that millennials can’t touch it alone. Parents are “gifting” or selling their rental properties to their children for a nominal value. While this is a valid strategy, there are several important factors to consider.
As someone who worked in many law firms, it never ceased to amaze me as to how seemingly happy siblings from functional families squabbled over the scraps of their parent’s estate. Buried feelings of “mommy treated you better” invariable surfaced when it came to money and, more importantly, what to do with their parent’s home.


If you are a parent of more than one child, you may want to consider the potential disputes that will invariably arise if you decide to sell or “gift” a home to one child and not the other. To prevent disputes over whether or not the non-receiving child was fairly compensated or whether or not the sale was fair, it’s imperative that the property be evaluated by at least three different independently chosen appraisers.
With several appraisers providing an independent opinion, it would be difficult for the siblings to claim that the property was undervalued. What’s more, if the child is actually paying the fair market value for the home, several appraisals will help refute future claims by the taxman that the value of the home and, therefore the adjusted cost base (an important component of determining the child’s capital gains, as discussed below), was lower than what the child paid.
If you give or sell an asset to a child, you’ll be deemed to have sold the asset for fair market value. This is true even if you sell the property for much less. For example, if a parent “sells” to their child a property that isn’t a principal residence for $1, and the true value of the property is $1 million, then the parent will have to pay tax as if the home sold for $1 million and not the $1.
The parents may use the principal residence exemption to shelter the tax on the sale to their child, however, this only “pushes” the tax issue down the line. Using our earlier example, the child who “bought” the property for $1 will be hit when she sells the house.
Assuming she sells the home for $1.1 million, she will pay a capital gain on $1,099,999, which is the difference between the amount paid ($1), also called the adjusted cost base, and the sale price ($1.1 million). This is in stark contrast with the amount that would’ve been taxed – $100,000 – if she actually bought the home for its fair market value (the difference between what the house was truly worth at the time it was sold to the child ($1 million) and what it sold for ($1.1 million).
In order to avoid significant tax implications, parents could sell the properties to their children for fair market value and take back a mortgage on the property and waive all payments. This approach allows for the deferral of a capital gain on the properties of up to five years. The parents may also revise their wills to state that these loans be forgiven upon their death. This approach further means that the adjusted cost base is higher, causing the capital gain to be reasonable for the children if they sell. Despite this more favourable approach, there are several other estate and tax issues that may arise. Professional advice is advisable.
When selling property to family members, it’s also imperative to stipulate how the property will be shared and maintained. Parents and siblings may assume that its current use will continue, leading to certain feuds. Consider a family cottage, for example. What happens on weekends? Are all family members able to continue to show up announced? If so, who will be responsible for the maintenance and upkeep of the home? What are the costs involved? These questions must be answered and put in writing to ensure a smooth transaction and avoid the old cliché that one should never mix money and family.


Natalka Falcomer
Natalka Falcomer is a lawyer and Certified Leasing Officer who has a passion to make the law accessible and affordable. She founded, hosts and coproduced a popular legal call-in show on Rogers TV, Toronto Speaks Legal Advice. She founded Groundworks, a firm specializing in commercial real estate law, and is the EVP of corporate development at Chestnut Park.









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Where To Buy Canadian Real Estate

7/9/2018

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​https://www.moneysense.ca/spend/real-estate/where-to-buy-canadian-real-estate-2018/
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​​Ontario Real Estate Listings

5/2/2018

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​​Ontario Real Estate Listings

Ontario is known for its multicultural composition. Although half of Ontario's population is comprised of people of British stock, the remainder is a cornucopia of cultures from around the globe. Toronto is known for its multicultural communities and vibrant diversity of lifestyles.  Real estate in Ontario is just as vibrant, where you can choose to live in world-class metropolitan Toronto, vacation or retirement properties near Lake Ontario or one of Ontario’s thousands of lakes, or you can escape the crowds in Ontario’s northern wilderness.   
Toronto is Ontario's cultural hotspot featuring a wide range of entertainment choices. There are theatres featuring off-Broadway plays and musicals, massive stadiums that host concerts and professional sporting events and more restaurants and pubs than one person could ever visit. One of the world's tallest freestanding structures, the CN Tower, the Hockey Hall of Fame and the Toronto Zoo are all popular Toronto attractions.  Real estate in Toronto offers a correspondingly wide choice of places to live, including urban condos, lofts and apartments, suburban houses and townhomes, and lakefront properties.  
If you are buying a home in Ontario it is good to know there is no shortage of entertainment elsewhere in the province. Theme parks, museums, art galleries and festivals abound. Niagara Falls has always been a popular draw, especially for honeymooners. Today Niagara Falls offers much more than a scenic view, with a casino and attractions galore. The vast Ontario wilderness and its many national and provincial parks provide ample opportunities for camping, boating, hiking, hunting, and fishing, not to mention an amazing choice of real estate options. Explore the region and our complete list of homes for sale below!





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Mortgage Rules 2018-A Practical Guide

4/17/2018

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https://omny.fm/shows/tasha-kheiriddin/2018-will-bring-new-mortgage-rules-heres-what-you
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April 17th, 2018

4/17/2018

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Royal LePage’s neighbourhood matching tool honoured with two Canadian Marketing Association awards

4/13/2018

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Royal LePage’s neighbourhood matching tool honoured with two Canadian Marketing Association awardsTORONTO, January 17, 2018 – Royal LePage’s “Your Perfect Life”, a neighbourhood matching tool, was honoured with two awards from the Canadian Marketing Association (CMA) at the 50th annual CMA Awards Gala held on November 25 in Toronto.
Royal LePage, its analytics partner Environics Analytics, along with design agency Alaia Technologies Inc. received a gold for “Your Perfect Life” in the Data Marketing category, recognizing innovative, creative and exemplary applications of data and analytics in the development of marketing programs. The application also earned a bronze award in the Experiential and Innovative Media category.
The “Your Perfect Life” feature is a first in Canada, allowing consumers to discover homes in communities that fit their current or desired lifestyles. The tool uses Environics Analytics demographic data to help home buyers pinpoint places where like-minded people live. This interactive website feature on Royal LePage’s national website royallepage.ca highlights neighbourhoods that consumers may not have otherwise considered and helps people relocate to unfamiliar areas of the country.
The company’s website experienced a 73 per cent year-over-year jump in traffic, exceeding expectations. “‘Your Perfect Life’ has become a go-to resource for house-hunters,” says Phil Soper, President and CEO of Royal LePage. “We’re honoured to receive the first gold award in the CMA’s Data Marketing category.”
About Royal LePage  
Serving Canadians since 1913, Royal LePage is the country’s leading provider of services to real estate brokerages, with a network of almost 18,000 real estate professionals in more than 600 locations nationwide. Royal LePage is the only Canadian real estate company to have its own charitable foundation, the Royal LePage Shelter Foundation, dedicated to supporting women’s and children’s shelters and educational programs aimed at ending domestic violence. Royal LePage is a Brookfield Real Estate Services Inc. company, a TSX-listed corporation trading under the symbol TSX:BRE.
For more information visit: www.royallepage.ca.
For further information, please contact:
Michael Jesus
Kaiser Lachance Communications
647-783-1807
michael.jesus@kaiserlachance.com

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Canadians' HomeBuying intentions highest in 8 years

4/4/2018

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  Larry Szpirglas - REALTOR®
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